The Baseball Projection Project

Baseball forecasts collected season by season, so that history can judge them.

About the project

Project noteScope and methodSeasons 2001 to 2011

The purpose of this project is to make use of the work that amateur and professional baseball forecasters already do. A great many people, using methods that range from formal modelling to careful judgement, spend each winter doing one thing: predicting how players will perform. Very little of that work is ever written down somewhere it can be checked.

So this site asks for those projections and keeps them, in order to let history judge the forecasting and to let the wider community work out better ways to forecast. Alongside the submitted sets it serves as a repository for published forecasts, reaching back as far as sets can still be found for as many players as possible.

How it is arranged

Seasons run newest first. Each season index lists the sets gathered for that year with separate hitter and pitcher columns, and records how each source distributed its file. Nothing is scored or ranked here; see Reading for the writing that does the scoring.

Why plain columns

Because it is far easier to work with large amounts of comma separated data than with spreadsheet workbooks. The longer version is in Why the files are plain text.

On the name

Before this project was named, a search turned up one earlier use of a similar phrase: a magazine article on projections published more than a decade before, and never updated since. The overlap is two ordinary words describing an ordinary activity, and no association with that article is intended or implied.