The Baseball Projection Project

Baseball forecasts collected season by season, so that history can judge them.

2011 Season

Season index12 projection setsHitters and pitchers

The widest year in the archive. Twelve sets were gathered for 2011, ranging from single-method systems through aggregates that combine several of the others, and this is the first season where the aggregate approach is represented on its own terms rather than as an appendix to somebody else’s work.

The two columns record how each set was distributed rather than how good it is. Where a source released plain columns, that is what is listed; where it shipped an archive or asked for payment, the row says so. Nothing in this table is ranked.

Projection sets gathered for the 2011 season
Projection setHittersPitchers
AggPro-CategoryCSVCSV
AggPro-SystemCSVCSV
Oliver / The Hardball TimesPurchasePurchase
Baseball DopeCSVCSV
MarcelZIPZIP
ZipsCSVCSV
CBS SportslineCSVCSV
ESPNCSVCSV
RazzballCSVCSV
CAIROCSVCSV
RotoChampsCSVCSV
Fangraphs FansCSVCSV

Reading alongside

The comparison writing collected under Reading was built from the previous season and is the closest thing here to an evaluation of these sets. For the shape most of them share, see Reading an aging curve.